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12 team league, non-PPR, standard rules. I can keep 2 players (with the draft pick I give up for keeping them) of the following:
Jamaal Charles (1st Round)
Dez Bryant (2nd Round)
Arian Foster (8th Round)
Josh Gordon (11th Round)
JC and DB, Josh you can get late once his suspension is announced, Arian is a gamble if you chose to risk it, but why not take the for sure picks.
I think you keep Dez and Charles. Very unlikely you can extract more value from the draft with your first and second round picks than those two already bring you, IMO.
Two scenarios in which I would deviate from this strategy:
1) You're the first pick in the draft. Now it's safe to let Charles go since you can get him right back at 1.1. In that case, I'd monitor the Gordon situation for as long as possible before making a decision (not sure when your draft is). If the suspension isn't year-long, I'd consider keeping Gordon over Foster. Gordon's value over a typical 11th-rounder is massive, even he just plays 8 games. Foster has great value in the 8th, too, but injuries and age concern me a bit. Personally, I'd rather take a high-upside rookie back in that spot.
2) You're the second pick in the draft and the guy drafting first has AD, Forte, or Shady. In all likelihood, drafter #1 will let his guy walk and then pick him right back up. You can feel safe dropping Charles here, because you'll in all likelihood get him back, and even if you don't, you'll get one of the aforementioned three guys.
I'm last pick in the draft (snake) so 1st pick in the second round (more relevant for Dez).
Any idea what your "true" pick #'s in the first will be? ie: what's your feel for what first rounders from last year will get kept?
I go Dez and Gordon
I go Dez and Gordon
I go Dez and Gordon
Even with being the last pick of round 1? I'd definitely keep Charles and probably Dez. Would wait to hear on Gordon though.
@andy117 is right about Gordon. If he somehow gets off the hook and you get the news before your draft, keep him and dump Dez. You should be able to grab a great WR1-type at 2.1. Absent any Gordon news, keep Charles and Dez.
Sorry, you were probably feeling good about the Dez/Charles combo and I'm going to blow that up. No chance you keep Dez as the first pick of the second round over Foster in the 8th. I love Dez. Who doesn't? But that is when he gets drafted. No one LOVES Foster this year, but my God Foster in the 8th round? No brainer. Charles as the last pick of the 1st round is also an easy choice. Keep Charles and Foster and draft Dez, D Thomas, AJ Green or whatever stud WR falls to you with the first pick of the 2nd round. Foster and one of the WRs listed above v. Dez and whatever your 85th ranked fantasy player is (that's the 1st pick in the 8th round)? Seems pretty simple to me.
Although I do agree with the guys above that you should wait as long as humanly possible to submit your keepers in hopes of a Gordon ruling. Draft Gordon again in the 7th or 8th round if they still haven't announced their decision if you want to beat others to the punch because you are optimistic on his ruling. That was a sweet run-on sentence. I love him but I am not optimistic. I have him in my dynasty league so I pray I am wrong.
Foster over Dez, easy call.
Draft is friday and fear I won't have enough info on Gordon's suspension. Tough to give up Dez or Arian Foster for that flier.
Delhome, I'd guess my actual first round pick if I didn't keep Charles would be in the 6 - 8 range
Gotcha. Any feel for who's gonna get kept? If the majority of top WR's and RB's get kept, there's a great chance Dez gets snagged before your second round pick and you get left without a true WR1.
I totally see what @indeed is saying re: Foster being an awesome value, but I'm very put off by his health concerns. Here's how I see it:
1) Keep Charles and Dez and have a true RB1 and a true WR1, then fill out your roster from there.
2) Keep Charles and Foster and have a true RB1 and a massive wild card. When you discount for health, you have to wonder how much value Foster adds over some of the guys you might be able to get in the third round--Tate, Mathews, Spiller, Gore, Rice, CJ, Bush, Jennings, etc. If you keep him, you probably grab the best WR available with your second round pick. Depending on who gets kept, this could be a pretty steep dropoff from Dez. You're left with Charles, a low-end WR1/high-end WR2, and a massive health concern as your RB2. I like the team in Scenario 1 a lot better. Both scenarios leave you with two potential studs, but the scenario in which you keep Dez leaves you with two "sure-er" studs. While Foster is a great value as an 8th round keeper, I don't know that your overall talent level at the end of the day is much different if you keep him over Dez--just more risky.
To each his own--definitely can't knock you for keeping Arian--but I would definitely go with Dez.
Delhomme17 is right that Dez is a sure fire stud. I get his logic. However, I just don't see how 13 picks into the draft Calvin, D Thomas, Dez, Marshall, Green, Julio and Nelson are all gone in a 2 keeper league. If that is the case some kick ass RB is going to fall in your lap. I don't like Foster this year. But I also won't ignore anyone that has tremendous value compared to his draft slot. He is an amazing 8th round value in a 12 team league. Amazing. If he works out awesome. If not, you gave up an 8th round pick. No big deal. You are still going to get a stud with that 13th overall pick regardless. I rank Dez 3rd in that group and admit he could be the top WR at the end of the season. But they are all stud #1 WRs. If you don't take value into account in a keeper league you will always be chasing other teams.
Looks like you're keeping Charles for sure. I'd keep Bryant over Foster. I'm just unsure about Foster's health. Sure it's no big deal if Foster doesn't work out and you lose an 8th round pick, but you have to realize you just lost your 2nd keeper also. You'll end up having to find a replacement for him at some point. Go with the sure fire WR1 stud.
As a 2013 Foster owner I'm steering well clear of him this year.